Market Watch

On March 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25%, extending a period of rate stability. In its announcement, the Bank acknowledged ongoing global uncertainty, noting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased volatility in energy prices and financial markets, while also heightening risks to the global economy. It further cautioned that higher oil and natural gas prices are expected to put upward pressure on global inflation in the near term. The next scheduled interest rate announcement is set for April 29, 2026.¹

Inflation showed signs of easing in February. Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 1.8% compared to a year earlier, down from 2.3% in January. Despite this progress, many households continue to feel the strain of higher everyday costs. Grocery prices remain a challenge, up 4.1% year over year and more than 30% higher than they were in February 2021, reflecting the cumulative impact Canadians have experienced over the past several years.²

The labour market also showed signs of cooling. Statistics Canada reported that employment declined by 84,000 jobs in February, bringing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. At the same time, wage growth continued, with average hourly wages rising 3.9% year over year to $37.56. For those currently working, higher wages have helped offset some cost pressures, even as broader economic uncertainty persists.³

From a longer-term perspective, periods like this are not unusual. Recent global market commentary highlights that capital markets have historically demonstrated resilience through geopolitical events. While volatility can feel unsettling, reactions across energy markets, equities, bonds, and currencies have, so far, been more measured than might otherwise be expected.⁴

In the Spotlight – Mortgage Renewals, a Thoughtful, Step-by-Step Approach

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, it can feel like a significant moment, especially if your current term began during a very different interest rate environment. The good news is that a renewal also offers an opportunity: a chance to pause, reflect, and ensure your mortgage still supports your life as it looks today.

Quick Fact

Ontario’s housing market is currently experiencing a strong buyer market, with approximately six months of inventory available.*

Mortgage Renewal vs. Mortgage Refinance: Understanding the Difference

Once you begin thinking about renewal, a common question follows: should you simply renew your mortgage, or is it time to refinance? While the terms are sometimes used interchangeably, they serve different purposes.

1. Mortgage Renewal:
   Continuing your existing mortgage
2. Mortgage Refinance:
   Making a more significant change